Application Roadmap for Battery Powered Electric Mobility

Daniel Holz, Thomas Fuhrmann

Mobility changes from fossil to renewable energy powered vehicles. Due to high battery weight and costs, only a few applications are currently possible. In this paper, battery weight and amortization times for different means of transport are predicted. It is the goal of this article to analyse, which vehicles are suitable for battery powered electric mobility in the medium-term future. Two scenarios with different energy prices and battery developments for the years 2020 and 2030 are analysed. Starting from energy consumption of fossil powered vehicles, the equivalent battery parameters for similar electric vehicles are calculated. The computations show that currently the battery mass is low enough to power short-range electric cars or river ships, but no realistic time-span for amortization can be reached. In 2020, the battery weight will be low enough to power river ships, short and medium range cars. It will be profitable to use battery electric drives for short and medium range cars, city buses and short-range trucks. The projection for the year 2030 shows that all types of commercial land vehicles will be economically driven with batteries. Until 2030, it will be impossible to power transport ships or aircraft using batteries. It is shown that in the medium term future all land vehicles will be profitable with battery electric drives. The amortization times depend on the chosen scenario. The break-even point for profitable battery powered land vehicles will be between 2020 and 2030. This means that in next decade a big part of fossil powered cars, trucks and buses can be replaced without increasing mobility costs. There is no alternative to chemical fuel for airplanes due to the high battery mass. For ships, the battery costs are too high for amortization. Chemical fuels from fossil or renewable sources will be the only possible power source for these means of transport in the mid-term future.