Comparative Analysis Of Linear/Arithmetic And Geometric Model On Livestock Population In Nigeria

Mashood Ayinla Rasaq, Aminu T.F., Olatinwo. M.

This research is carried out to compare the linear/arithmetic and geometric model on the livestock’s population in Nigeria from 1961 to 2010.Data were collected  on the livestock’s population (Grazing livestock: cattle, sheep, goat and buffalo) from 1961 to 2010 in Nigeria. However, mathematical population projection models that is (linear, and geometric models were applied to determine the rate of population growth and to construct the model. Each of the model were used to estimate the livestock’s population and comparison was done between estimate from each  model with actual livestock’s population to find the model that produce the closest values(estimated values) to the actual livestock’s population. The model that produces the closest estimated livestock’s population is considered to be the best model. The best model is linear and is therefore used to predict the livestock’s population in Nigeria from 2011 to 2060. Base on this livestock’s population forecast, recommendation was made to the government and other stakeholders that there is  need for proper management of these livestocks since their significance on economy and importance to human cannot  be over-emphasized.