Marathawada Rain Amount Forecasting During the Monsoon Months of the Year 2022

Anand M Sharan

Monsoon rain prediction, Annual rainfall, Rainfall frequency spectrum, Flood control, Hydro-power generation.

From historical studies, it is well known that Marathawada is a rain deficient region and has been a cause of farmers suicides. In such situations, forecasting for rain amount is quite helpful in planning for crop plantation well in advance. In this work, the prediction is based on the use of four methods which are (a) the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, (b) the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method, (c) the Time Series method, and (d) the Root Mean Square (RMS) method. Since these methods are numerical, the accuracy of any of these methods taken separately is not reliable. Therefore, the predicted value is taken as the average of four values obtained by these different methods. The average value this year will be slightly above the average of last 32 years.