Modelling Crude Oil Production In Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation

Adewoye Kunle Bayo, Salau Ganiyat Monishola, Olatinwo Motolani

Autocorrelation function, Autoregressive models, Partial Autocorrelation function and forecasting

In the last few decades, crude oil (petroleum) has claimed the topmost position in Nigerian export list, constituting a very fundamental change in the structure of Nigerian international trade. This paper work is focus on time series analysis on monthly crude oil production, the data used is secondary extracted from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) record online and the statistical tools used for this research work are time plot to determine level of fluctuation of data, inferential statistics employed were Autocorrelation function, Autoregressive models, Partial Autocorrelation function and forecasting using autoregressive model. From the analysis it was discovered that fluctuation in production are mostly apparent in 2013 and 2015. This might be due to lack of adequate supply of stock to the depot and the forecasted values for 2016 quarters were increasing and decreasing in the same order.