The Model of Shoreline Change in Estuary of Porong River after Mud Volcano

Mahmud Mustain

The basic research of this paper is to produce the result of the model of extended area or/and degradasion area in estuary of Porong river after mud volcano phenomenon. The model is the part of conception of coastal management in the sector of coastal protection. This sector is concerning to the stability of shoreline change. This is obviously the extended area from sedimentation or/and degradasion area due to erosion processes in coastal vicinity.  It means stable from the sedimentation and/or erosion processes that may not be wanted. This research is to create the model of shoreline change, based on the previous years to the recent condition, and then to estimate the feature condition.  This model based on the conception of longshore transport (lonsgshore current) in the certain location of estuary of Porong river. The model works on the two stages.  (1). Using data of  year 2000 for initial condition, the model produced three difference results for next 14 years from three difference sediment transport formulations.  This is to find the most apropriate result when to be compared to the existing data of 2014 among those formulatios. The formulation of Komar-Inman [6] is the best one due to getting result that have the smallest error of   7 % to the existing data 2014.  (2). By using data of  year 2014 as initial condition, the model have produced the  estimation of shoreline change for the next period of; 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. After 20 years implementation, the model gives result  of extended land area to the offshore direction in around of 1000 meters. The accuration of the result is depend on the accuration of Komar-Inman [6] formulation in the transport sediment conception.