Economic and Job Forecasts for the Sustainable Energy Industries in the USA

Dr. Roger H. Bezdek

This paper presents a comprehensive definition and forecast of the sustainable energy industries in the USA to 2030.  It develops a rigorous definition of the sustainable energy industries, estimates their current sizes and composition, including technology, sales, tax revenues generated, jobs, occupations, and skills, and forecasting their growth to 2030 under three scenarios for the U.S. and Ohio.  It forecasts the growth of these industries under three scenarios:  1) a “business as usual” scenario that assumes no change in policy, 2) a Moderate Scenario that assumes that various moderate, incremental Federal and state sustainable energy initiatives are put in place over next two decades, and 3) an Advanced Scenario that “pushes the envelope” on the sustainable energy industries possible from current or impending technologies and includes what may realistically be feasible both economically and technologically in such a “crash” scenario.  It finds that the sustainable energy industries create a variety of high-paying jobs, many of which take advantage of manufacturing skills currently going unused as manufacturing continues to undergo restructuring in the U.S., and that wages and salaries in many sectors of these industries are higher than U.S. average wages.  An important implication of this study is that, while energy and the environment present many challenges, addressing these challenges also represents a potential opportunity.  Existing sustainable energy industries will have to greatly expand, new industries will have to be developed, and rapidly growing sustainable energy industries can be a major part of a new American industrial revolution engendered by the need to address climate issues and related energy and environmental challenges.