Exploration of Extensive Electricity Demand in Nepal

Nawraj Bhattarai, Manjana Ghimire

The aim of this research is to comprehensively analyze the Nepal’s long term electricity demand for the year 2012 to 2030. For this purpose, different scenarios have been considered. This analysis was done using IAEA’s model, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand which is a bottom up model. The secondary data were obtained from government agencies and other organizations in energy sector. Starting from the base year, the future electricity demand has been projected under three scenarios comprising of possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of a country. The base year electricity demand is 3004 GWh which will reach to 6202 GWh in 2030 under Business as Usual Scenario (BAU). Further in Medium Growth Scenario (MG) and High Growth Scenario (HG), the electricity demand will reach 8399 GWh and 11783 GWh respectively. The percentage of share of electricity in base case for industry, agriculture, transportation, residential and service sector are respectively 38.31%, 2.42%, 0.19%, 47.39% and 11.67%. The result under high growth scenario shows that the total projected electricity demand for all the sectors in 2030 will be 11783GWh, out of which 5084GWh is industry, 4463GWh, 1991GWh, 183GWh and 62GWh are residential, service, agriculture and transport respectively. This shows how much electricity will be required to meet the projected demand in 2030.