Forecast and analysis of COVID19 Disease 2019 in Iran

Soheil Nosratabadi, Mohamad Bagher Davoodi, Hassan Shafiee alavi, Shaghayegh Zonobi, Maryam Mirshekari

OVID19, forecast mortality, SIR Model, ARIMA Model

Since December 2019, coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia has occurred in Wuhan, and infection has spread everywhere. Iran is still in its infancy, and there is no indication that the epidemic has reached its peak now, as there is no downward trend in disease and death. Nevertheless, using statistical and data mining methods, future changes can be estimated based on daily mortality. Since the reported statistics in Iran have the highest mortality rate among other countries, we have also been using data from our country. In this study, we intend to predict the daily mortality of coronavirus disease patients in Iran. We have used mortality data from Iran's provinces and estimated implementation based on ARIMA models. The results show that the severe risk of coronavirus reaches its peak point in the coming days of April 4th and is optimistic for between 200 and 300 deaths daily. The results of this model are used for the SIR method with 2 contact rates, to determine the number of the infection and the decay endpoint. Implementation results show that, in the best scenario, the number of infected coronaviruses will reach zero in May-16.

https://dx.doi.org/10.31873/IJEAS.7.09.03