FORECASTING OF MONSOON RAIN IN THE YEAR 2025 IN JHARKHAND

ANAND M. SHARAN

Monsoon rain prediction, annual rainfall, rainfall frequency spectrum, El Nino and La Nina influence on rainfall, drought and famine, crop failure

Jharkhand frequently faces drought like situation quite often. Therefore, it requires careful planning before planting of crops. The planting of crops involves sufficient capital for the poor farmers who borrow money either from the banks or from private money lenders at much higher rates. Since the amount is heavy for the farmers, the crop failure can lead to farmer’s suicide. Therefore, information about the future rain is very important. The earlier the information is available the better it will be for planning. This research is being carried out with this point in mind.

In this research the data is collected over 32 years and based on these - three methods are used for prediction. The predicted value is the average of the three method results.

The methods are: (1) the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, (2) the Time Series method, and (3) the Root Mean Square (RMS) method using linear regression analysis,and the Artificial Neural Network ( ANN ) method.