Forecasting of Rain for Vidarbha for the Year 2024

Anand M. Sharan

Monsoon rain prediction, Fast Fourier Transform method, Water shortage, Drought and Famine

In this work the rain is forecasted for the year 2024 for Vidarbha which is known to be rain deficient. This work uses 32- year rain history of Vidarbha. To forecast the rain, four different methods are used. These methods are: Root Mean Square method(RMS), Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)) method, Time Series method, and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. For the purpose of forecasting the results are calculated for each of the methods and then their average is computed which becomes the forecast amount.

The forecasted results are plotted for the months of June ,July, August, September and then the total sum of these four months results are also plotted.

Since the results are based on rain data of past 32 years-it is possible to come up with the forecast about seven months ahead of the start of the monsoon season. The forecast of the rain amount seven months ahead of time helps farmers to plan their crop planting unlike some other forecasts which are made just about two months ahead of time which does not give sufficient notice to the farmers before they plant the crops.