Modeling of Infectious Disease Through the Contact, Treatment and Recovery 0f Chicken Pox Patients (A Case Study of Offa Local Government Area of Kwara State)

Okeniyi O.M, Adeoye O.A, Ojo O.D, Adewoye K.B

The outbreak and spread of diseases have been studied for many years. The ability to make predictions about diseases could enable scientists to evaluate inoculation/vaccination or isolation plans and may have a significant effect on the mortality rate of a particular epidemic. Therefore this research Modeling of Infectious Disease Through the Contact, Treatment And Recovery of Chicken Pox Patients (a case study of offa local government ) will study  how people  contact chickenpox and  investigate how many people an infected person can infect at a particular time and to develop model for male and female with Chicken pox . Regression analysis, Chi – square and R0 in SIR model were use to analyse the data. Result of the analysis revealed that the rate at which people contact chickenpox will be increasing and that contact of chickenpox is not depended on gender. Regression analysis shows that the model for male is  Y= 6,102 + 0.059X  and model for  female  is  Y= 5.177 + 0.078X  and both model   fitted the data. Further analysis revealed that, since R0 (Reproductive Number ) greater than 1 there will be likely epidemic on chickenpox  for male  and that 5.9% of the male that have chickenpox must be treated to avoid epidemics  and also 7.8% of the female that have chickenpox must be treated to avoid epidemics. We thereby recommend that health planner should educate people more on chickenpox and the preventive measures.

https://dx.doi.org/10.31873/IJEAS.5.10.01