Monsoon Rain Prediction for Jharkhand for the Year 2023

Anand M. Sharan

Monsoon rain prediction, annual rainfall, rainfall frequency spectrum, El Nino and La Nina influence on rainfall, drought and famine, crop failure

Monsoon rains account for 90% of the annual rain. The monsoon months are defined as June, July, August, and September. The rainfall estimates for each of these months are made using four methods. These methods are: (1) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method, (2) the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, (3) the Time Series method, and (4) the Root Mean Square (RMS) method using linear regression. The predicted rain value is the average of the four of these methods. This year, based on the calculations, it is predicted that it will be 16.7% less rain than the past 32 years average.