Prediction of Monsoon Rain Amount in Jharkhand in the Year 2020

Anand M. Sharan Professor

Monsoon rain prediction, annual rainfall, rainfall frequency spectrum, El Nino and La Nina influence on rainfall, drought and famine, crop failure.

Of all the water consumed in India, about 75 to 90% of this comes from annual rainfall in the monsoon period. If there is any shortfall in the rainfall during the monsoon period then, one has to plan ahead of time how to act in this situation of water scarcity. Prediction of rain amount well in advance will help in planning to meet the need.

As a result of this, a period of 32 years is selected for future prediction - about 8 months ahead of time. To attain this objective, the estimate of rainfall amount is made using four methods, which are: (1) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method, (2) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, (3) the Time Series method, and (4) the Root Mean Square (RMS) method using linear regression. The amount predicted equals the average of results obtained by these four methods.