Prediction Of Year 2019 Monsoon Rainfall For Vidarbha, The Area With Acute Water Shortages And Farmers Suicides

Anand M. Sharan

In this work the prediction of rain is based on  (a) Time Series method (b)  Fast Fourier Transform method , (c) the average of the two methods , and (d)  modification of the average method by including a random factor.  This factor which is less than one modifies the average value. In these methods, historical rain data of Vidarbha from 1987 to 2018 are selected for projection. These methods take into account the trends in rain pattern also. The forecast is being made in month of February much before the Monsoon season  starts in June. This forecast  makes known that there will be more rainfall than the 32 year average. This early forecast can be useful to the farmers for planting crops, and city governments for making arrangements for water supply.