Rainfall Amount Prediction for the year 2020 for Vidarbha

ANAND M. SHARAN

Monsoon rain prediction, Fast Fourier Transform method, Water shortage, Drought and Famine.

For predicting the rainfall amount for the year 2020 for Monsoon months for Vidarbha, four independent methods have been used and the predicted value is equal to the average of these four values. The four methods are: (1) the Time Series method, (2) the Root Mean Square (RMS) value based month-wise by carrying out the linear regression, (3) the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method where the weights are determined based on records going back to 1872.

The predicted amount of the rainfall this Monsoon season will be slightly above the average of past 32 years. This should be good for farmers waiting for good rain as well as replenishing the underground water reserves, other water storage facilities, and hydro-power.